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Betting with value is the only way to beat the bookies long-term.
That’s a fact. Let me explain why.
If two average Premier League teams play each other 100 times in a row I know that approximately half of those matches will end with the home team winning, a quarter will end in a draw and the other quarter will be an away win.
Therefore, the price on a home win will be around 2.00, 1/1 or evens. However you prefer to think of it.
If you – the punter – put £100 on the home win in all 100 matches and 50 of them end in a win for the home team, you will win half of your bets and lose half, ending up with no profit or loss overall.
Make sense?
Ok… imagine that the Bill the bookie factors in some profit in each match and only offers you 1.80 (4/5) for the home win. You still lose 50 x £100 but you only make £80 on each winner, losing you £1,000 overall. Not good!
However, if the Bill gets his pricing wrong and offers 2.20 (6/5) for the home win you make £120 each time and end up with £1,000 profit.
This is the key to betting! You must find prices that the bookie gets wrong.
In the real world, of course, the same teams do not play each other 100 times in a row, but 100 different matches which have value bets will perform in a similar way.
So how do we find value?
We have built a massive database which covers 17 leagues around the world. There are comprehensive stats for every single team over many seasons – it’s quite incredible!
A very clever piece of software looks at upcoming fixtures, analyses all the data on each team and comes up with an idea of what the price should be for a number of bets; home win, draw, away win, both teams to score, over 2.5 goals, etc.
It then runs off to Betfair, collects their prices and calculates how much value is present for backing or laying.
All we do is pick out the best value bets. Dead easy!
Monthly Access is £27 for the first month and then £27 per month recurring
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