CJSteele Probabilistic Services
Predicting and mitigating the effects of uncertainty and random variability on technical and commercial systems
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Do you know how to naturally and instinctively combine probabilistic methods into your design practice? Can you naturally design robust, high quality and low risk systems such as new products, processes and business strategies?
What should you do now to improve your probabilistic design skills?
I have spent years working in this area and teaching it.
That’s why I am so certain that this e-book will help you. In fact, I am so certain that if you feel it doesn’t help you, then I will give you your money back. No questions asked I will return your money.
I am only interested in helping you and if you feel I haven’t helped you, then I need to try something else, and you shouldn’t have to pay for what didn’t work.
That means you really have nothing to lose!
So if you want to improve your probabilistic design skills, and be able to design robust systems (like products, manufacturing operation and business plans) instinctively, then hit the buy button below and download the e-book now.
If you are still not sure about the e-book, and I can understand that because this is new to a lot of people, then for free you can take a look at the first four chapters. These are the most critical and will give you the beginnings of the intuition that I have spoken about.
You might find that this is all you need.
Features
Reasons why
Benefits to you
1.
PDF document
It is versatile and can be printed
You can print it and read it wherever you want or you can read it on any computer
2.
12 chapters
This was originally set out to be part of a 12 week university subject.
You can take it one chapter at a time and steadily build upon your knowledge
3.
35 000 words
It have kept this as concise as possible while also writing it in a way that is easy to read and telling you all you need.
You will gain the knowledge you need as quickly as is genuinely possible
4.
128 pages
I have kept the writing well spaced so that it is easy to read and possible to make notes on the printed version if you wish.
You will find the e-book is easy to read and you can highlight areas that you wish to quickly recall later.
5.
Notes at key points
This is a learning tool and a recall tool. You are prompted to note the important issues and they are also ideal for when you need to quickly find something specific.
You will be automatically refocus at key points while you arte reading so that you will better understand the content.
The e-book will become an ideal reference that you can use to quickly remember key pieces of knowledge.
6.
Action points at strategic locations
Sometimes you need to do apply knowledge to develop your intuition. These action points provide the quickest way I know how.
You will quickly ramp up your intuition with minimal effort.
7.
Questions posed at the start of each chapter
These questions were originally used to open students to the issues that were going to be covered so that they could better learn.
You will understand the point of everything that is written, and you will be able to quickly contextualise all knowledge so that you can build the best understanding possible.
8.
Reference section
So that you are able call upon other resources if you want to take you knowledge further into other directions.
You can easily find other resources to augment your understanding if you wish to take it further.
9.
6 Case studies
These were for a class and designed to teach students how to identify key probabilistic issues.
You can easily test your knowledge and skills to confirm your development.
10.
Coverage of common modern quality practices
This was originally included so that students understood the current quality culture and how probabilistic methods relate.
You will be able to quickly integrate your understanding methods that are currently in use.
You will also be able better understand quality systems and ensure that they are properly implemented to give you the results that you want.
11.
Written to improve intuition
I have realised that people need to be able to apply these methods in conjunction with their other work; not stop what they are doing each time they need to think about such issues.
You will be able to naturally incorporate probabilistic design principles into your daily work to ensure the quality and reliability of the systems that you work on.
12.
Price $38
This is a good balance between the value of the item and affordability.
If you’re unable to get an employer to pay for it, then you can still get the benefits that come with this e-book for a reasonable amount of money.
13.
First 4 chapters free when you subscribe to the [Theory Update Series](http://www.cjsteele.com/theory-update.htm)
I realise that sometimes you need more of an idea on a product before you can buy it. Especially books, I always like to flip through them before buying them.
You can be certain of the quality of what you will be getting when you buy the full e-book.
14.
Free updates
I always look for new ideas and ways to apply probabilistic design more effectively. As I find them I will incorporate them into new editions and I want you to know about them.
You know that you will always be up to date with the latest in probabilistic methods. You will always be ahead of the curve when compared to those around you. You will always be the expert.
It’s ironic, really.
So many of us work in areas where random variability is the major source of the issues we need to deal with: quality, risk, reliability things like that. But how many of understand the real basics of analysing random variability: Porbabilistic Design?
I am sure that you have heard of Six Sigma, Value Analysis, Value Engineering, Quality Circles, Quality Function Deployment, Design of Experiments, Failure Mode and Effects Analysis, Fault Trees, SWOT, Facilitated Risk Analysis Process and many other similar systems that have been and gone.
But let me ask you this. Do you really understand how these systems actually optimise a system so that the negative effects of random variability are reduced or eliminated?
How can it be that we all spend so much time working in an area imbedded in probabilistic issues and yet we know next to nothing about probabilistic design?
If you have read the [about page](about.htm), then you know how much important probabilistic design methods are to me. You will also know how much experience I have with them and and how intimate I am with them.
I have learnt probabilistic methods, taught probabilistic methods and applied them in engineering and business.
I have been doing this for years, and during this time I have learnt three things:
Applying probabilistic methods can break your focus on design or planning, and this makes it hard to properly integrate them into your work.
When you apply them enough and learn them in the right way, probabilistic methods become intuitive. They are then easy to apply, and you can then easily integrate them into your work.
No one seems to explain or teach probabilistic methods in a way that quickly lets people apply them intuitively. I actually believe that no one has ever even thought to do this.
Because I know the power of probabilistic methods and because I have such a passion for them, I think everyone should know how to apply them intuitively.
This has compelled me to find a better way to teach probabilistic methods. A way that will develop this intuitive understanding
It took me some time to develop this intuition. It also took a lot of trial and error to work out how to teach it effectively. Normally, the only way you could learn this was if you were to attend a class or training that I was involved with.
Over the past few years only a few hundred people have been able to learn these methods.
But now you too can easily do the same. You can learn from my experiences teaching and practicing probabilistic design to improve quality and risk in systems that are affected by random variability.
Do you know why you should have a mastery of probabilistic design?
Imagine the feeling that comes with:
Naturally designing your system to be immune to random variability
Identifying systems that will be inherently unreliable so that you can avoid them
Designing a product so durable that it operates perfectly even after parts have worn
Spotting risk and quality issues before they cause any real problems
Properly understanding what robustification is and how it actually works
Being able to use probabilistic design theories to explain quality and risk issues to anyone
Knowing that you can spot and avoid high risk systems
Quickly understanding quality problems when others are just stressed and trying to work out what is happening
Listening to someone talk about the latest quality practice when you know the real fundamental phenomena that make this ‘new’ method work
People looking at you like you’re a magician as you look into a problem imbued with randomness and find the answer. This is my favourite; something about probabilistic methods just impresses people.
I can do all of these things so I can tell you that it feels great when that mystery that many of us associate with random variability is gone.
Quality problems disappear
Risks are quantified and accounted for
You can focus on development, and not worry about uncertainties
You are so much more confident when you are developing systems. You know that they will be robust and produce no quality, reliability or risk issues.
Additionally, you can pre-empt potential issue before they happen and then quickly resolve them in the later developmental stages.
Probabilistic design is not as magical as it seems
I know that everyone seems to think that the application of probability theory is borderline magic: I see it all the time in my work.
However, I also teach probabilistic methods. I always see how once you get a few key points and let go of the irrational fear that many seem to have of probability and statistics, you can quickly master probabilistic methods.
Anyone can master probabilistic design.
And, because of the benefits that come from being able to intuitively incorporate it into your everyday work, I think everyone should have a chance to learn how.
The only problem is that a lot of people who teach this stuff seem to want to make it hard. They either focus on such intense theory at the start that they kill your desire to learn or they give no thought to making it easy to learn.
I think it should be made as easy as possible for you to be able to learn how to intuitively apply probabilistic methods. And that’s been my goal for the past few years, and it is something that I want to share with you.
How to develop an intuitive ability to apply probabilistic design methods
So what is the secret to having this intuitive understanding that lets you have this ability?
It is actually a bit paradoxical. In fact, it reminds me a bit of a quote that I once heard from a Tango Argentino dance teacher:
You need the logic before you can have the passion.
In the context of dance it means you need to understand music and the moves before you can use them intuitively to guide your actions on the dance floor in a passionate dance.
It might seem like a stretch, but it I found that it is exactly the same with probabilistic design. You first need to work with the logic so that you not only see how it works, but so that you have applied it too. This way you can ‘feel’ how it works. Once you have a feel for how it works and you combine this feeling with the logic, it becomes intuitive, and easy, to use probabilistic methods whenever you are analysing or designing a system.
That’s why I have written this e-book: to help you naturally and intuitively incorporate probabilistic methods into your everyday activities.
How will this e-book teach me to intuitively apply probabilistic methods?
The e-book that I have written shows you how to most easily develop this logic and then the feel so that you can have an intuition for probabilistic design. I have written it strategically to develop your intuition:
First I make you think about the problems you face in the most suitable way.
Then with your mind open to receive the information I show you how you can use probabilistic design methods to solve such problems.
By seeing how these problems are solved with such methods you begin to see, understand and feel how probabilistic design works.
With this, you then begin to develop your intuitive ability.
I have done this for hundreds of students so I know that I can do it for you too.
Inside the e-book you will learn:
The mind set that only a few people have, but that you can develop to make it easy to intuitively apply probabilistic methods (Page 3).
When robustification is impossible (Page 8 and Page 58) there are two reasons
When experimental procedures can cause problems (Page 78). Interestingly enough, the problem is the ultimate benefit.
How you can determine how much information you really need to predict quality (Page 40)
A graphical method that allows you to see how random variability flows through a system (Page 22)
Why many people actually don’t know how to properly use control charts, but you will (Page 43)
The limitation with a common quality control method that few really know about (Page 44)
The probabilistic theory that underlies a number of quality methods that no one ever seems to tell you about (Page 6)
An old, but rarely known method for optimising a system that is easier than traditional DoE methods (Page 103)
The potential Achilles heal with Six Sigma (Page 41)
How to properly understand the need for a well designed experiment (Page 64)
An improved experimental method for robustifying a design that reduces workload and gives you much more insight into your system (Page 88)
Techniques you can use to quickly and easily model a system so that you can see how random variability will affect quality and risk (Page 92)
The principle that actually allows robustification to work (Page 7). Once you have this, everything else just falls into place.
How to visualise experimental design to see sensitivities there could be to small measurement errors (Page 69)
About some of the best books that I have come across on the topic of probabilistic design (Page 114)
The algebra of probability distributions that are a mystery to most, but so vitally important to those of us who need to ensure quality and risk (Page 15)
How to reduce the workload that comes with experimental methods (Page 62). Most people always waste far too much time on these
How to estimate random variability of key features when you have limited data (Page 17)
How to use initial findings to see if you have improved a system’s reliability without the need for extensive testing (Page 101)
The benefits to be had from inverting variables in experiments (Page 84)
How you can quickly analyse the results of experiments in Microsoft Excel, without the need for costly DoE software (Page 90) How Monte Carlo works and where you can gat a simple Microsoft Excel application for free (Page 18) About the use of genetic algorithms in robustification, and you can bets work with them (Page 51) About the numerous ways you can optimise a system in the spreadsheet environment (Page 59) How a common habit that many of have can be destroying you ability to intuitively design more robust systems and what to do about it (Page 93) A collection of short hand equations that you can use to help you follow the flow of random variation through a system (Page 34). How you can simplify a system so that you can more easily analyse it for quality and risk (Page 94) Creating actual probability distribution with small data sets (Page 99) Some of the best ways to properly quantify and describe random variables (Page 13)
Don’t get me wrong, it’s not like I am going to just hypnotise you and pass the information in subliminally. It will take some time for you to develop this intuition and you will need to have an understanding of the logic.
However, I have laid the book out so that the logic comes easily and the intuition naturally develops. Just as I have seen it happen time and time again with others before you.
Features of the e-book Probabilistic Design
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