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*For
Your Information*
Successfully trading the forex market on an intraday basis requires
precision and a very careful selection of trades.
The enormous scope of the trillion dollar, 24 hour, globe spanning fx
market presents a miriad of opportunities for the short term trader -
however a day trader in this market must be aware of certain inherent
factors to overcome.
Firstly, the bid ask spread in the fx market, normally at least 3
pips, makes trading on the shortest timeframe - in and out within
seconds - very difficult.
The daily ranges can be very wide among certain currency pairs,
presenting many opportunities for the day trader - however I feel that
the intraday forex trader should look for specific technical and
fundamental conditions before entering trades.
Secondly, due to the fact that there is currently no centralized
exchange in the forex market, traders lack data on volume on open
interest (the number of active contracts for a given security over a
given time period)- important sources for traders in other markets -
which causes a necessary shift in focus to other technical and
fundamental factors.
While interbank dealers are able to see the order book and use this
to their advantage, the retail fx trader can exploit their ability to
react faster, and also with the knowledge that their trades will not
move the market, as the trades of the larger institutions will.
The CME and Reuters are planning to launch a trading platform for
fx in Q1 2007 - using CME trade matching and clearing technology -
this will address the issues mentioned above (ie the spread will be
tighter, you will be able to see volume etc.) and it will be
interesting to see whether they can attract the liquidity and create a
successful marketplace.
While both technical and fundamental analysis are important to the
forex trader, we will begin with a focus on technicals.
The Big Picture
A very important factor in having an edge in the market is to be
aware of the big picture - identifying the type of market that exists,
whether it is trending or range bound.
To grasp this it is essential to use MULTIPLE TIME FRAME ANALYSIS
- even if you are a day trader, you should be looking at daily, hourly
and 10 or 15 minute charts. The longer term charts will give you an
idea of the overall temperament of the market.
One of the foremost strategies used by banks and hedge funds is
to determine the overall trend of the market and enter trades at key
retracement levels of that trend.
One of the advantages of trading the forex market is that it
normally trends more than the equities market, due to the fact that
macroeconomic events can continue to influence the market over a
timeframe of months and years.
The fx trader should expoit this understanding of the overall
trend of the market by positioning themselves in the direction of the
trend.
In an uptrending market, look to buy pullbacks at key levels and
the inverse for a downtrending market. One of the strengths of the fx
market is that you can expoit market moves whether they are to the
upside or downside.
Identifying good entry points to join the trend
A variety of technical tools are used to help gauge good entry
points. Basic support and resistance levels (characterised on a bar
chart by a sequence of lows or highs that fluctuate only slightly
along a horizontal line and represent a level where buy orders
outnumber sell orders or the inverse) on a daily chart and fibonacci
levels are two examples...
Lets take a quick look at Fibonaccci Levels:
Above is an example of FIBONACCI RETRACEMENTS in use. Fibonacci
levels are created by drawing a trendline between two extreme points
and then dividing the vertical distance by the key Fibonacci ratios of
23.6%, 38.2%, 50%, 61.8% and 100%.
I have found the 38 and 50% levels to be the most significant. The
fib levels were a popular form of analysis among the interbank traders
I worked with, and I found the 38% level to work with an eerie
accuracy on the 30 minute chart while trading bund futures. Again the
longer the timeframe used, the more significant the level.
Measuring the strength of the trend
Attempting to buy the low and sell the high is very often the
undoing of the inexperienced trader - and while this strategy works in
a range bound market, it is best avoided unless you have identified a
market as such.
An important tool for determining the strength of a trend and
whether a market is range bound is the AVERAGE DIRECTIONAL INDEX or
ADX.
Measured on a scale between 0 and 100, readings below 20 are used
to indicate a weak trend, while readings over 40 indicate a strong
trend. ADX is not used to show the direction of a particular trend,
rather to measure its strength.
Stay away from trend following trades if the ADX is below 20 and
trending downward.
US Dollar Index
The US Dollar Index (USDX) is a futures contract offered by the New
York Board of Trade. It is a trade-weighted average of six foreign
currencies against the dollar. Currently, the index includes euros
(EUR), Japanese yen (JPY), British pounds (GBP), Canadian dollars
(CAD), Swedish kronas (SEK) and Swiss francs (CHF).
USDX broadly reflects the dollar's standing compared to the other
major currencies of the world. It is widely used to hedge risk in the
currency markets or to take a position in the US Dollar without having
the risk exposure of a single currency pair.
The US Dollar Index allows the fx trader a feel for what is going
on in the FX market globally at a glance. If the Dollar Index is
trending lower, then it is likely that a major currency that is a
component of it is trading higher.
Important Psychological Levels
FX day traders should be able to identify price areas where large
order flows will be triggered through the interbank market, and take
advantage of the moves that are created by them.
Such levels include major areas of support and resistance on the
daily chart and also round numbers such as double zeros - for example
EUR/USD 1.2700.
Careful placement of stop loss and profit target orders enables
the traderto execute trades with a strongly positive risk/reward
factor.
For example, one might place a stop loss of 15 pips from the level
and a profit target of 50 pips on the other side if you are attempting
to profit from a bounce at such a level.
One should note that stop loss orders are normally placed somewhat
beyond the key round figure numbers and profit taking orders are
normally right at the key levels.
Attempting to catch a rebound off a major level is best executed
when there are other technical factors supporting the rebound. For
example if the market had been trading below its 20 period SIMPLE
MOVING AVERAGE (SMA) prior to reaching the key level, this would
support the decision to attempt to catch a rebound at that level.
Identifying these key levels can provide good entries to trades
where you are joining the trend, as we discussed earlier, or if you
are attempting to profit from a rebound off such a major level.
Bollinger Band Strategies
Bollinger Bands are a popular study used across all markets -
including fx.
They can be useful in both generating ENTRY AND EXIT SIGNALS and
GAUGING TRENDS. The basic interpretation of Bollinger Bands is that
market prices will tend to stay within the upper and lower bands.
Bollinger observed the following characteristics of his indicator:
- Sharper price movements tend to occur when the bands tighten and
volatility decreases.
- When prices move outside the bands suggests a continuation in the
direction of the overall trend.
- Bottoms and tops made outside the bands followed by bottoms and
tops made inside the bands indicates a trend reversal.
Bollinger Bands are best used along with other indicators, such as an
oscillator like the MACD.
PIVOT POINT STRATEGIES
An old but reliable tool, originally used by floor traders are pivot
points. They are another valuable tool for determining key support and
resistance levels. Below is a pivot point calculator and the
underlying formula:
_GAIN4X.COM_
function CalcPivot() { var F= document.Pivot; var
piv,res1,res2,res3,sup1,sup2,sup3; piv=
(1*F.H.value+1*F.L.value+1*F.C.value)/3; res1= 2*piv-F.L.value; sup1=
2*piv-F.H.value; res2= piv+(res1-sup1); sup2= piv-(res1-sup1); sup3=
F.L.value - 2*(F.H.value - piv); res3= 1*F.H.value+2*piv-2*F.L.value;
F.P.value= Math.round(piv*10000)/10000; F.R1.value=
Math.round(res1*10000)/10000; F.S1.value=
Math.round(sup1*10000)/10000; F.R2.value=
Math.round(res2*10000)/10000; F.S2.value=
Math.round(sup2*10000)/10000; F.R3.value=
Math.round(res3*10000)/10000; F.S3.value=
Math.round(sup3*10000)/10000; return; } PIVOT POINT CALCULATOR
Enter the high, low and close prices, and then click calculate.
HIGH:
LOW:
CLOSE:
RESISTANCE 3:
RESISTANCE 2:
RESISTANCE 1:
PIVOT:
SUPPORT 1:
SUPPORT 2:
SUPPORT 3:
FORMULA FOR PIVOT POINT CALCULATOR
PIVOT = (High + Low + Close) / 3
RESISTANCE 1 = (2 x Pivot) - Low
RESISTANCE 2 = Pivot + (High - Low)
RESISTANCE 3 = High + 2 x (Pivot - Low)
SUPPORT 1 = (2 x Pivot) - High
SUPPORT 2 = Pivot - (High - Low)
SUPPORT 3 = Low - 2 x (High - Pivot)
The prices used to calculate the pivot point are the previous
period's high, low and closing prices. These prices are usually taken
from the currency pair's daily charts, but the pivot point can also be
calculated using information from hourly charts. Normally the pivot
points are taken from a daily chart and applied to intraday trading.
When the market opens above the pivot, the bias for the day is on
the long side. An open below it suggests a bearish bias.
Typically the trading range is confined between the first support
and resistance levels and these along with the pivot itself are the
most important areas for you to consider.
While looking at pivot points you should be looking for a reversal
or break through of the support and resitance levels. If the level
fails to hold, this suggests follow through, and the second level of
support and resistance can be used as a target.
Interestingly, an area that was a strong support level can often
become a resistance level once it has been violated and retraces back
to that same level (and the inverse for a previously strong resistance
level).
Again, these levels are best used when confirmed with other
technical indicators.
Inside Day Breakouts
An inside day is one where trading is contained within the trading
range of the previous day.
The volatility breakout strategy entails entering a trade on a
stop order above or below the range that has been previously trading -
with the expectation that since a breakout has occured price will
continue to move in that direction.
Volatility breakout systems are based on idea that if the market
moves a certain percentage from a previous price level, the market is
likely to see follow through in that direction. In this scenario you
are looking for a continuation of the move based on momentum.
ONE SHOULD LOOK FOR A SERIES OF INSIDE DAYS TO IMPLEMENT THIS
STRATEGY, and the greater thenumber of inside days that transpire, the
higher the probability of a breakout.
Also, the longer the timeframe used, the stronger the breakout
opportunity - hourly and daily timeframes are the best to use.
This strategy is also best used with pairs that see tighter ranges
- these are typically the _crosses - _currency pairs that do not have
the USD as part of the pairing such as the EUR/GBP and the EUR/CHF.
Inevitably there will be false breakouts, as the interbank dealers
try to trigger the stop orders just outside the breakout levels.
In order to avoid being caught in a false breakout situation, enter
your trade with a STOP ORDER at least 10-15 pips above the breakout
level - meaning the levels above or below the trading range depending
on whether the market is breaking out to the upside or downside.
(In case you are not clear on this - a stop order is one that is
placed above or below where the market is currently trading and
becomes a market order when the market touches the price where the
stop was entered. A buy stop is placed above the market and a sell
stop is placed below.)
Again one can look to the ADX as an indicator to whether the market
is still range bound or beginning to trend one way or another.
STAY AWAY FROM INSIDE DAY BREAKOUT TRADE IF THE ADX IS BELOW 20
AND TRENDING DOWNWARD.
The breakout strategy is valuable in that it teaches the trader to
do something that is normally counter intuitive - that is to buy the
high or sell the low. Novice traders are more likely to try to pick
tops and bottoms.
Often the breakout will occur in a fast moving market, making
decisiveness even harder. However, if your strategy is in place and
you have identified the opportunity, you will be ahead of the game.
ECONOMIC RELEASES
One should probably not use technical strategies to enter trades
right around important economic releases such as the employment
report.
Key levels of support and resistance will still come into play,
after the fundamental data has played itself out in the market - but
the short term technicals will hold little relevance.
Among the advantages to the retail fx trader in trading off
fundamental data is that the information is readily accessible through
sources such as Bloomberg and Reuters, and that the retail trader can
actually act faster than the banks and hedge funds.
The impact of major economic news can take some time before it has
finished impacting the market, and the day trader can use this to
their advantage - benefiting from the momentum generated by the order
flow of the bigger players.
The best opportunities are created when the news comes out way off
expectation and the market scrambles to correct itself. This can
happen quite frequently with releases such as the nonfarm payrolls
part of the employment report.
For a good exit to a trade entered based on fundamentals, the
trader should look to a significant technical level.
Lets look at the market reaction to some of the major economic
releases:
The most timely and broad indicator of economic activity and
overall economic health is the Employment Report.
Market Reaction:
EVENT FIXED INCOME
EQUITIES
DOLLAR
Payroll Employment Up
Bond Market Down
Stock Market Up
Dollar Up
Unemployment Rate Up
Bond Market Up
Stock Market Down
Dollar Down
Payroll Employment Down
Bond Market Up
Stock Market Down
Dollar Down
Unemployment Rate Down
Bond Market Down
Stock Market Up
Dollar Up
The most important quarterly release is Gross Domestic Product (GDP)
- the best overall barometer of economic activity.
Market Reaction:
EVENT FIXED INCOME
EQUITIES
DOLLAR
GDP Up
Bond Market Down
Stock Market Up
Dollar Up
GDP Down
Bond Market Up
Stock Market Down
Dollar Down
Best times to be trading the FX market and the most volatile pairs to
watch
The global forex markets trade from 5:00 PM EST Sunday through 4:00
PM EST Friday. Short term trading is usually best when there is good
volatility.
Having said that lets take a look at the different global sessions
and their characteristics:
EUROPEAN TRADING SESSION (LONDON)
The most important fx dealing center in the world.
London opens at 8.00 GMT and closes at 17.00 GMT. You can expect to
see the highest volatility during the European session. GBP/USD,
USD/CHF, GBP/JPY and GBP/CHF see the most volatility with average
daily ranges of up to 140 pips.
U.S. SESSION (NEW YORK)
Opens at 8.00 A.M EST and closes at 5PM EST.
The second largest forex market place.The busiest time is 8am to
noon EST.
Trading activity normally slows down after the U.S. afternoon
trading period. GBP/USD, USD/CHF, GBP/JPY and GBP/CHF see average
daily ranges of 120 pips during the US trading session - presenting
many opportunities for the day trader.
EUROPEAN/U.S. OVERLAP
8am - noon EST. The market is very active during this period, making
it an especially good environment for intraday trades.
ASIAN/EUROPEAN OVERLAP
2 a.m to 4a.m. EST. Trading is less active during this period.
ASIAN SESSION (TOKYO)
The Asian session opens at 7.00 p.m. EST and closes at 4:00 a.m.
EST.
Volatility can be mixed during this period. USD/JPY, GBP/CHF and
GBP/JPY have the widest ranges and present the short term trader with
the greatest opportunity in terms of volatility.
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Entry: Buy GBP/USD @ 1.9805
Limit @ 1.9865.
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